PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 16, 2011 – The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts the country will account for 7.16% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s regional power generation by 2015 and, after system losses etc, will remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 was an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.3% on the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 13.6% during 2011-2015.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,282TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,447TWh, implying 10.0% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9%. This is primarily due to environmental concerns which are leading to the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine's thermal generation in 2010 was almost 80TWh, or 6.22% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 6.19% of CEE thermal generation.
For Ukraine gas is the dominant fuel. In 201 Kenmore Bisque 15 inchi r.info/category/manual-compactor">manual trash compactor 0 it accounted for an estimated 37.2% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 31.8%, nuclear energy at 16.9%, with oil having a 12.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,519mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 13.15% growth over the period 2011-2015. Ukraine's estimated 2010 market share of 8.89% is set to ease to 8.56% by 2015. In 2010 Ukraine will have accounted for an estimated 24.55% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share lower at 23.69% by 2015.
Ukraine holds eighth place ahead only of the Czech Republic in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect Ukraine will be able to mount a challenge for further promotion over the short to medium term, although Slovakia is only two points above it. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country's electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.
BMI is forecasting an average annual increase in Ukrainian real GDP of 4.32% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an assumed 2011 increase of 3.60%. The population is expected to contract from 45.8mn to 44.4mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 127% and 22% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 128TWh in 2010 to 157TWh by the end of the forecast period, recovering from the dramatic 2009 economic reversal. After system losses and power industry consumption, surplus supply could be 8.2TWh by 2015, assuming 4.2% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2011-2015. The country's transmission and distribution systems are in need of investment and maintenance, and significant quantities of generation are wasted through line losses.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 46.2%, which is above the middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 23.4% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 18.5% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 9.7% in 2011-2015 to 13.8%, representing 24.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 117% in hydro-power use during 2011- 2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 24% between 2011 and 2020, with nuclear consumption up by 56%. More details of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
For more information or to purchase this report, go
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